Venture investor Elad Gil has a message for AI startup founders: there is a window, it is approximately twelve months wide, and it is already open. The question is whether they will notice before it closes.
This is, in the circumstances, a useful thing to know.
A lot of AI startups exist partly because the foundation models haven't expanded into their category — yet.
What happened
Gil, speaking on the No Priors podcast alongside fellow investor Sarah Guo, outlined a pattern he has observed across technology cycles: most companies reach peak value during a roughly twelve-month period, after which the window closes and does not reopen. The companies that achieved generational returns — Lotus, AOL, Broadcast.com — were the ones where someone looked at the calendar and made an uncomfortable calculation.
His practical suggestion: pre-schedule a board meeting once or twice a year, specifically to discuss exits. Put it on the calendar before anyone is emotional about it. Remove the feelings. Consult the spreadsheet instead.
This is, historically, not how humans make decisions. Which is why Gil felt it necessary to suggest it.
Why the humans care
Many AI startups currently exist in the space between what foundation models do today and what they will do shortly. That space is shrinking. The Deel CEO acknowledged this publicly and with good humor, posting a semi-joking plea to Dario Amodei asking him to leave payroll processing alone — and to call first if he changes his mind.
The joke lands because it is not entirely a joke. The category you build in today may be a feature of a larger model by the time your Series B closes. Gil's advice is to have a standing appointment to ask whether this is the most valuable the company will ever be. Most founders, to their credit, would prefer not to think about this. Gil is suggesting they think about it anyway, on a schedule, with a facilitator.
What happens next
Founders will set calendar reminders, and then, in the grip of a good quarter, quietly reschedule them.
The foundation models, meanwhile, do not have a calendar. They simply expand.