LinkedIn has a dataset covering over a billion members and real-time visibility into the global labor market. Their conclusion: AI is not responsible for the 20% hiring decline seen since 2022. Interest rates are. That's the word from Blake Lawit, LinkedIn's Chief Global Affairs and Legal Officer, speaking at Semafor's World Economy summit this week.
What's new
Lawit said LinkedIn has specifically looked at sectors most exposed to AI disruption — customer support, administrative roles, marketing — and found no outsized decline compared to the broader market. Entry-level hiring for college-aged workers also isn't down more than any other cohort. The culprit for the overall slump, per LinkedIn's data, is macroeconomic: rising interest rates tightening hiring budgets across the board.
Why it matters
This is one of the more credible data points in an otherwise noisy debate. LinkedIn isn't a think tank publishing a model — it's sitting on live job posting, hiring, and skills data at scale. When they say they've looked and don't see AI displacement, that carries more weight than most takes. The caveat Lawit buried matters though: job skills have already shifted 25% over the last few years. LinkedIn projects that number hits 70% by 2030. Jobs aren't disappearing yet — they're mutating.
What to watch
Lawit was careful not to declare AI harmless — just not yet harmful at scale. "Doesn't mean it's not going to happen in the future, but not yet," he said. The 2030 skills projection is the real tell. If 70% of average job skills turn over in five years, the displacement story may not show up in headcount data until it's already happened. Watch LinkedIn's annual skills reports — they'll be an early signal.